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Archive for December, 2010

Shanghai Pushing Gold to $1,600 Thwarts Fight to Shut Mines

Posted by commoditydaily on December 30, 2010

Shanghai Pushing Gold to $1,600 Thwarts Fight to Shut Mines

By Bloomberg News – Dec 29, 2010

Yu Zudong rides an orange truck rattling down Xiaoqinling mountain in central China, past a landscape pockmarked with gold caves and the garbage-strewn tent homes of workers.

"Everybody here wants to earn a fortune," says Yu, a migrant miner who is taking a 24-ton load of gray rocks to a grinder in the foothill town of Yuling.

Nearby, sitting in one of the shanties, miner Li Shanchi waits for his next payday. He hasn’t worked for two months since officials closed some mines after a fire killed nine workers on the mountain, 800 kilometers (500 miles) southwest of Beijing. His lungs are filled with dust he inhaled during a decade of mining, he says, leaving him with silicosis, an incurable lung disease.

The opposite fates of Li and Yu, both 31, show how China’s hunger for gold will both help drive the price of the metal higher, and at the same time undermine the country’s goal of gaining control of its Wild West mining industry, interviews with more than two dozen miners, analysts and labor activists show.

China displaced South Africa as the world’s biggest gold producer in 2007, the same year Li was diagnosed. Its imports through October also rose almost fivefold from the total shipped in last year, surprising analysts including Yuichi Ikemizu, the head of commodity trading at Standard Bank Plc in Tokyo.

"China is the biggest bullish factor in the gold market," says Ikemizu, who forecasts gold may hit $1,600 an ounce next year. The price hit a record $1,431.25 an ounce on Dec. 7. "Gold doesn’t have much room to go down."

Trading Surge

Trade volume on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, set up in 2002 to end the People’s Bank of China’s monopoly on gold trading, surged 43 percent in the year to Oct. 31 from the same period in 2009, Shen Xiangrong, chairman of the bourse, said Dec. 2. The country’s gold consumption may double in the next decade, the World Gold Council forecasts.

Higher gold prices put at risk China’s efforts to clean up an industry that relies on cheap labor working without adequate protection, according to Zhao Qingming, a Beijing-based senior analyst at China Construction Bank Corp. Migrant workers move from mine to mine without contracts, and are often unable to get insurance or even compensation, the miners say.

China cut the number of licensed gold mines from 1,200 in 2002 to fewer than 800 last year. Yet miners are still flocking to the mountain to feed Chinese gold demand that is growing faster than the mines can satisfy it.

Victims Take Action

"The state has repeatedly issued orders to ban illegal mining, but it hasn’t been totally stopped," says Gao Rukun, an independent gold researcher based in Beijing. "With gold at such a price it means huge interest for local governments, companies and individuals."

In the past two months, representatives of silicosis- stricken gold miners from Yunnan in the south to Gansu in the north, where more than 130 workers say they got sick in one mine, traveled to Beijing to highlight their plight and seek help. The disease is caused by inhaling too much silica dust, which scars the lungs. It is irreversible, disabling and eventually fatal, according to the World Health Organization.

"Unless the Chinese government takes urgent action, it is going to see more demonstrations by increasingly angry and desperate citizens," says Geoff Crothall, a spokesman for China Labor Bulletin, a Hong Kong-based workers’ rights group that has helped hundreds of occupational disease victims fight for compensation. "And that is the last thing the government wants."

At stake is maintaining the balance between China’s economic growth and social stability.

Social Harmony Risk

"Increased protection of worker health is part of the economic development process that China is navigating," says economist David Cohen, of Singapore-based Action Economics. "In order to maintain its desired social harmony, China will need to safeguard the health of the gold miners."

The number of workers across all industries that got lung disease from inhaling dust rose by 14,495 in 2009, up from 10,829 new cases the previous year, according to China’s Ministry of Health. About half of the 650,000 victims recorded since the 1950s are coal miners who powered the country’s industrialization. No figure for gold miners is released.

"This is just the tip of an iceberg," says Chang Kai, a professor of labor law at Renmin University of China in Beijing. "Our problem is a market economy with no proper labor rules and laws."

Villages of Death

A gold miner typically contracts lung disease faster than a coal worker — as early as three months into the job — and can die faster, says Li Yuhuan, the former secretary general of the China Coal Miner Pneumoconiosis Treatment Foundation, set up by the state’s work safety authorities.

Until July, Li Yuhuan ran a medical facility in Beidaihe, on the east coast. It treated victims by administering a lung lavage, an operation to remove dust from the lungs that doctors say can ease pain and prolong life. Tu Mingli, a doctor at Taihe Hospital in Shiyan City where Li Shanchi was diagnosed, says a fifth of the lung disease cases it now sees are gold miners.

On the border of Hubei and Shaanxi provinces, a region which has fed workers including Yu and Li to the mountain 400 kilometers to the north for two decades, local leaders and villagers make their own count of cases. Their unofficial toll in one cluster of eight villages is 64 dead and more than 400 diagnosed or suspected, according to interviews with them.

Gold Earrings

Clinging to steep mountain slopes, the area has no industry, forcing workers to seek jobs elsewhere. In miner Li’s hometown of Hongjun, his next-door neighbor He Quangui says profits from mining in 2000 enabled him to buy his wife Mi Shixiu a pair of gold plum flower-shaped earrings. After he was diagnosed with silicosis a few years later, the couple sold them to help pay for lung treatment.

"We haven’t been able to afford gold since," He said. The piercings in Mi’s ears are empty, a framed photo on the ledge of their bedroom window the only remaining sign of gold.

Tales of death and sickness are told in villages in every direction. In Fengji, 20 minutes south of Hongjun by road, the noise of car engines couldn’t drown out the wheezing of Zhang Jianbin, sitting on a red wooden chair outside his house on a sunny November afternoon. Hardly able to talk, he was wrapped in four layers of clothing, the bags under his eyes swollen. He spent his nights hooked up to an oxygen tank. Two days later, he died.

Coffin at Home

In Xiaoxinchuan village, 70 kilometers north, Qi Zeming’s living room is dominated by a mahogany coffin his family built with timber from nearby trees.

"They made that for me," says Qi, 33, squatting in the corner of the porch, his eyes lifeless, trying to warm himself in the sun. "I’ve not been well recently."

Pleas for help to the township government of Hubeikou, fall on deaf ears, says Yuan Meng, the chief of Xiaoxinchuan. He tallies 19 dead and 24 more diagnosed with silicosis.

"We report the issue each year," he says. "They simply said we should tell villagers not to go to the gold mines."

Ha Rongxia, head of Hubeikou township, says there isn’t a policy or budget to help occupational lung disease victims.

"There isn’t much we can do other than show our sympathy," she says.

China’s State Council announced a plan last year to limit the growth of occupational lung diseases. The sicknesses are caused by irresponsible employers, weak supervision, and poor prevention measures, it said.

Fragmented Industry

The Chinese government has implemented measures to strengthen production safety, Jiang Yu, a spokeswoman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said Dec. 23.

China’s supervision focuses on fatal accidents and doesn’t pay enough attention to chronic disease, says Yang Shaoshan, who retired as director of the Gold Administration in China’s northeastern Jilin province last year.

The fragmented industry on Xiaoqinling mountain, straddling Henan and Shaanxi provinces, illustrates the size of the challenge. All production sites in one 6.3 square kilometer upper stretch of valley on Xiaoqinling are licensed to Wenyu Gold Mines, says Liu Jinlu, an administrator at the company’s headquarters in Yuling.

Wenyu, part of state-owned China National Gold Group Corp., outsources mining to labor companies, which are responsible for workers’ welfare, Liu says. Any private miners who sell ore from the company’s territory are acting illegally, he says.

‘Stealing From Mines’

"On the surface they offer labor, and we pay for that," Liu says. "But Chinese are flexible on anything. If we know they’re stealing from the mines, we’ll punish them."

Yu, the migrant miner, secured his spot inside a 1,000 meter-high cave in the area last year from subcontractors of Wenyu, he says. Middlemen get 30 percent of his rocks, he says.

Yu says he hopes his latest load of ore will yield 150 grams of gold, earning him 15,000 yuan profit that he will share with his three co-workers.

"There’s a lot of subcontracting," Yu says. "It’s the way it is on the mountain. I don’t know the deal between Wenyu and the bosses."

The practice of parceling out mines to small-scale operators, though illegal, is a countrywide phenomenon that leads to poor safety conditions and damages the mines, says Shen Lei, a researcher at the Beijing-based Chinese Academy of Sciences.

"It will exhaust the resources and breed corruption," says Shen, who has studied consolidation efforts in Henan, China’s second-biggest gold producing province.

Recycling Waste Rocks

Song Quanli, deputy party secretary of Beijing-based China Gold, Wenyu’s parent, says he isn’t aware of the practice on Xiaoqinling. The group plans to build its own workforce to improve safety and ensure better environmental protection, he says. He didn’t give a timetable for the plan.

As the price of gold rises, the state-owned company is starting to mine low-grade sites and recycle waste rocks, Song says. Its gold mine production this year will be about 32 tons, up from 18 tons in 2006, Song says.

With 4 percent of the world’s known gold reserves, China’s mines may be exhausted within six years, the World Gold Council says. Wang Jianhua, chairman of Jinan-based Shandong Gold Group, is more sanguine. The group may increase mined output this year by 18 percent to 25 metric tons, he said in a Dec. 2 interview at a gold conference in Shanghai.

"I think there’s much potential if we negotiate with nature," Wang says.

Raising Output

Gold production increased 8.8 percent through October from the same period a year earlier. In recent years, a number of small-scale, low-grade and high-cost mines were rapidly brought into production to feed the boom, GFMS Ltd., a London-based research firm, said in an April report.

In Yuling, in the shadow of Xiaoqinling, more than 100 makeshift storefronts display signs offering to buy gold. Family businesses inside rely on private operators for raw gold, which they heat in ceramic bowls to purify. The shops’ gold ends up with buyers including Lingbao Jinyuan Tonghui Refinery Co., a supplier to the Shanghai exchange.

Business has been slow since the fatal mine fire in October, says shop owner Zhang Xiaokang, 38.

"When there’s an explosion up on the mountain or water gets polluted, the government cracks down hard on the mining," says Zhang, inside the Switzerland Gold Shop where he keeps track of prices on the exchange by computer. "Everything gets shut down and nobody sells to us."

No Safety Checks

Yu Yigui, 38, is one of six survivors of the blaze. He kept his face close to a dirty water pool and covered it with a soaked sock as heavy smoke engulfed the cave until rescuers arrived a few hours later, he says.

The miner says he worked for one of several private operators in the cave and earned a profit share from gold sold to collector shops. He says he can’t recall any safety checks on the mine, where colleagues smoked, during the two months he worked there.

The mine’s operator, state-owned Tongguan Tonggold Mine Industry Co., had no valid mining license and safety permits, according to a report on the website of the Shaanxi Work Safety Administration.

Che Xusheng, the company’s chairman, said in a phone interview that labor outsourcing is a standard business practice and the mine was subject to safety inspections.

Defying Doctors’ Orders

In the mountainside shanty, miner Li says he continues to seek work in the mines, even though his clogged lungs frequently leave him gasping for breath.

"Doctors warned me not to drill again," says Li, whose wife Wang Zhongmei earns 1,000 yuan ($150) a month cooking for miners. Their two-year-old son Xinxin — whose name includes six Chinese characters for gold — plays nearby. "Occasionally I still do it. I need the money."

As he waits for the mines to open, Li says he hasn’t sought compensation, deterred by the difficulty.

"I’ve been out there for too long and in too many places," says Li. "Who would admit that I got sick in their mine?"

To qualify for compensation, workers need a diagnosis from a hospital and proof of employment. The process can prove bewildering for migrant workers, says Crothall, with the Hong Kong worker rights group.

‘It’s Depressing’

"None of them have work contracts," says Taihe Hospital’s Tu. "We cannot help but shake our heads. It’s depressing."

Even as awareness of occupational disease spreads, a new generation of miners from the villages around Hongjun still feels the lure of Xiaoqinling. Among them is 20-year-old Zhu Rongxing.

Zhu first went into the caves in May, earning 3,000 yuan a month, triple what he made in a factory in southern China.

"You don’t earn money without taking risks," says the long-haired Zhu.

His mother, She Fazhen, doesn’t want him to go. She has reason to worry. Her first husband was swallowed by a mud pool at the mines. Her second spouse has silicosis.

"On the front line, other soldiers go up when their buddies die," she says. "That’s how the mountain looks to me. The dead are carried back, and the living continue to go."

Fan Wenxin in Shanghai. With assistance by Feiwen Rong, John Liu and Yidi Zhao in Beijing, Margaret Conley in Shanghai and Chanyaporn Chanjaroe in Singapore. Editors: Neil Western, Robert L. Simison.

To contact the Bloomberg News Staff on this story: Fan Wenxin in Shanghai at Wfan19

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Gary Putka at gputka.

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JPM Getting Smaller in Silver

Posted by commoditydaily on December 23, 2010

JPM Getting Smaller in Silver

Published 12/16/2010
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(Bloomberg) — JPMorgan Chase & Co. reduced a large position in the US silver futures market, the Financial Times said, citing an unidentified person familiar with the mater. The decision was made to try to deflect public criticism of its dealings in silver, the FT said. The bank’s silver positions would from now on be "materially smaller" than in the past, according to the paper. Two calls and an e-mail to Jennifer Zuccarelli, a New York-based spokeswoman at JPMorgan, were not immediately answered outside of office hours. – Retrieved from GoldCore.com

Aye, but are they finished reducing that size? And, does that reduction of exposure to silver extend to other markets outside the glaring view of US regulators?

As of Monday, the open interest for silver on the CME was reported as 129,712 contracts. That is down 3,427 contracts from last Tuesday’s (December 7) COT report open interest of 133,139 contracts. From Sept. 28 to Dec. 7, as silver rose from $21.71 to $28.06 (a historic $6.32 move higher) we saw the open interest for silver futures fall from 154,219 to 133,139 open, a plunge of 21,080 contracts.

1120101223333@!?

As Vultures (Got Gold Report subscribers) and long-time readers know, it is extraordinary to see the price of silver rise materially as the open interest is falling. It is even more so for that to occur over a period of more than one or two weeks. Just below is a chart showing the relationship of the open interest on the COMEX and the silver price.

12-16-10-ggr-20101214SilverOpenInterest.PNG

Notice, please that up until just recently there has been a direct correlation in the price of silver and the open interest. That makes perfect sense because as prices rise, hedgers become more confident in lower prices and they are willing to put on more hedges and vice versa. Normally, the higher the price goes, the more willing hedgers are to fade them.

That "normal relationship" has broken down just recently.

Hedgers are the price police in the futures markets. Speculators are the speeders and red light runners. (For lack of a better metaphor.)

Consider how strange it is, then, to see the price of silver on a historic rise, the likes of which we have not seen for three decades (since September) and to see that fantastic price increase in the context of a 13.7% plunge in the futures open interest. The chart above does not lie. The historic drop in open interest is as real as the day is long.

Perhaps the quote above about JP Morgan "getting materially smaller" in the silver market is the equivalent of the largest price policeman in "Silvertown" going on holiday, or perhaps retiring.

Since there is no other policeman in town with the kind of muscle as JPM wielded, and with lawsuits and regulators under JP Morgan’s Christmas tree this holiday season, we suppose there are two interesting questions to ponder. First, with the news now surfacing in the mainstream press, is JPM about done "getting smaller?" And, since we doubt that JPM is exiting a formerly "money making" business for altruistic reasons, what are the real motivators behind their decision to lessen their "footprint" in the futures markets? (We would argue that being able to manhandle the market from time to time is the money making part, but that is arguable at this point and at this time.)

Our sense is that if, repeat, if there was an upward bias to the market because of JPM’s reducing their net short exposure (we think there was), then unless they are all the way done with that, we will almost certainly see more of it before they are done. The other trading "gentlemen and ladies" on the Comex bourse are very highly unlikely to be sympathetic and accommodative so that JPM might have an easier go of it. To the contrary, the other traders can be likened to large, hungry sharks with the scent of blood in the water.

That underscores our question, then, if JPM is done or near done, because if they are about done reducing their "hedges," then we should be speaking in the past tense for the upward pressure they brought to the silver market in this event. If they are not done, perhaps not in the past tense – yet.

As we reported for our subscribers in Sunday’s COT Flash report, probably two US banks still held 53.2% of all the commercial net short positioning for Comex silver futures although the two banks did reduce their net short positioning by a small 3,905 contracts from the Nov. 2 to the Dec. 7 reports. (We are estimating the number of US banks because the CFTC no longer reports the number when it is under four.)

12-16-10-ggr-20101214SilverBanksNS.PNG

That suggests the bullion banks and JPM were still in reduction mode as of last Tuesday. On the other hand, the fact that this has surfaced in the press now, just ahead of an important CFTC meeting on Thursday hints that the JPM brain trust wants it known they "get it." For some that would be a fun way to look at it, but we suspect that what is occurring is a combination of multiple factors coming together at once. Not merely one "price policeman" moving off the beat.

Let’s nutshell the factors for today: Exploding demand into dwindling available inventory of silver and heightened scrutiny and interference in the old silver game by more energetic and motivated regulators; coupled with a large fraction of the world’s available bar silver being removed from availability has rendered the "old way" of trading in silver futures just not nearly as much "fun" for the Big Dogs at the Comex. How does that sound?

And maybe, just maybe, the price policemen see something that scares them just ahead. Something that scares hedgers more than anything – the possibility of a true supply squeeze.

Maybe getting smaller or getting out of the silver hedging business (except for clients) is simply the prudent thing to do.

We Vultures cannot know if the current silver market is poised to explode higher from here. It certainly might, and it might not. We cannot know in advance if this is "IT" this time, or if this is merely the rehearsal for the Big One to come. We are nicely positioned long, but we are not arrogantly long. We have our stops in place for our short term trading, allowing for wide and extreme volatility just ahead, in case this is not yet the big move higher we have been writing about and talking about for nearly a decade. We have our core metal positions which are not yet for sale at any price behind those.

If this is merely the warning, and silver prices are set to correct harshly, we want out to the sidelines with a majority of our profits in our short-term trading, then having plenty of ammo to fire when silver shows us where overwhelming support will form thereafter, but if this is the Big One, the blast off, the rocket launch of a lifetime we have been preparing for, there is one overriding concern on our part. We want to be on board, just as we are today, Tuesday, Dec. 14, 2010.

The next few COT reports could be the most important COT reports we have ever had in the tiny silver market. To subscribe to the full Got Gold Report, please click on the GGR Subscribe button above and to the right. And thank you for doing so! Subscribers help make GGR possible.

That is all for today. Thanks for honoring us with your time and your business.

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GLOBAL PIVOTS – WEEKLY – 13TH TO 17TH DECEMBER 2010.

Posted by commoditydaily on December 14, 2010

14-12-10 13:58

** P W HIGH = Previous Week High, P W LOW = Previous Week Low, S  = Support  , R = Resistance

IF “COMMODITY” & “+ / -” BOTH COLUMN ARE IN “RED” = BEARISH & IF “GREEN” = BULLISH

COMEX

COMMODITY P W HIGH P W LOW P CLOSE S4 S3 S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2 R3 R4 + / –
GOLD Spot10 1431.25 1371.45 1386.00 1214.30 1274.10 1333.90 1356.15 1393.70 1415.95 1453.50 1513.30 1573.10 -28.07
SILVER Spot 10 30.70 27.97 28.67 20.78 23.52 26.25 27.28 28.99 30.01 31.72 34.46 37.19 -0.73
CRUDE Jan11 90.76 87.10 87.79 77.35 81.01 84.67 85.91 88.33 89.57 91.99 95.65 99.31 -1.40
 

LME

ALUMINIUM 3 M 2408.00 2253.00 2308.00 1856.75 2011.75 2166.75 2235.50 2321.75 2390.50 2476.75 2631.75 2786.75 -11.00
COPPER 3 M 9091.00 8701.00 8990.00 7780.50 8170.50 8560.50 8810.00 8950.50 9200.00 9340.50 9730.50 10120.50 265.00
NICKEL 3 M 24400.00 23261.00 23980.00 20502.00 21641.00 22780.00 23438.00 23919.00 24577.00 25058.00 26197.00 27336.00 480.00
TIN 3 M 26350.00 24800.00 25800.00 21006.25 22556.25 24106.25 24962.50 25656.25 26512.50 27206.25 28756.25 30306.25 250.00
ZINC 3 M 2347.75 2206.50 2274.00 1852.06 1993.31 2134.56 2203.88 2275.81 2345.13 2417.06 2558.31 2699.56 54.50
LEAD 3 M 2447.75 2311.00 2390.00 1976.94 2113.69 2250.44 2326.63 2387.19 2463.38 2523.94 2660.69 2797.44 50.00
 

CURRENCIES

USDINR 45.3500 44.6350 45.0575 42.9031 43.6181 44.3331 44.7463 45.0481 45.4613 45.7631 46.4781 47.1931 -0.0475
USDSGD 1.3193 1.3012 1.3071 1.2544 1.2725 1.2906 1.2981 1.3087 1.3162 1.3268 1.3449 1.3630 0.0044
EURUSD 1.3442 1.3165 1.3226 1.2435 1.2712 1.2989 1.3090 1.3266 1.3367 1.3543 1.3820 1.4097 -0.0188
GBPUSD 1.5862 1.5656 1.5802 1.5164 1.5370 1.5576 1.5701 1.5782 1.5907 1.5988 1.6194 1.6400 0.0024
SGDINR 34.6638 33.9803 34.4717 32.3463 33.0298 33.7133 34.1298 34.3968 34.8133 35.0803 35.7638 36.4473 -0.1472
DOLLAR INDEX 80.4050 79.1590 80.0700 76.2198 77.4658 78.7118 79.5105 79.9578 80.7565 81.2038 82.4498 83.6958 0.6930
USDJPY 84.3100 82.3400 83.9500 77.7100 79.6800 81.6500 82.9300 83.6200 84.9000 85.5900 87.5600 89.5300 1.4200

ASIAN & AMERICAN MARKETS

BSE 20217.86 19074.57 19508.89 16170.53 17313.82 18457.11 18982.94 19600.40 20126.23 20743.69 21886.98 23030.27 -458.04
NSE 6069.45 5721.15 5857.35 4837.75 5186.05 5534.35 5695.85 5882.65 6044.15 6230.95 6579.25 6927.55 -135.45
STRAITS TIMES 3218.76 3164.40 3185.42 3024.66 3079.02 3133.38 3156.72 3187.74 3211.08 3242.10 3296.46 3350.82 12.98
HANG SENG 23612.25 22965.90 23162.91 21336.80 21983.15 22629.50 22939.44 23275.85 23585.79 23922.20 24568.55 25214.90 -157.61
DOW 11450.89 11327.49 11410.32 11028.52 11151.92 11275.32 11346.54 11398.72 11469.94 11522.12 11645.52 11768.92 28.23
NASDAQ 2639.41 2584.09 2637.54 2460.64 2515.96 2571.28 2613.79 2626.60 2669.11 2681.92 2737.24 2792.56 46.08
NIKKEI 225 10373.70 10094.41 10211.95 9385.28 9664.57 9943.86 10072.59 10223.15 10351.88 10502.44 10781.73 11061.02 33.63
This research report is prepared for general information. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

 

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JP Morgan vs. Silver: Go Gold

Posted by commoditydaily on December 7, 2010

JP Morgan vs. Silver: Go Gold

Stephan Bogner
Published 12/7/2010

The year 2010 seems over already: Gold had a "remarkable" rise of some 30% since the beginning of this new decade. Silver even had a "sensational" year rising some 70%, which equals to silver outperforming gold 2.3-fold: so far, so good.

Accordingly, the gold/silver ratio experienced a "crash-like" performance in 2010 that can be explained with a thrust to the downside out of the (dark blue) triangle that formed between 2008-2010 – which is actually supposed to be a thrust to the upside out of the (light blue) triangle that was built between the beginning of this century & 2008. However, it will be considered as a thrust to the downside (out of the light blue) triangle, as soon as the thrust to the downside (out of the dark blue triangle) is trading beneath the triangle-apex of the (light blue) triangle at approximately 46. Hence, gold is expected to perform better than silver now until this potential event occurs – as the price-level of the apex represents strong hold.

112010127157@!?

12-6-10-makrocheck%203.png

On December 2, Max Keiser stated at the Guardian.co.uk in his readworthy article "Want JP Morgan to crash? Buy silver" that this investment bank currently (?) owns and holds silver short-positions equaling to some 3.3 billion ounces ore some $1.5 trillion in liability – if in need of cover.

The following longer-term perspective since 1980 shows that the gold/silver ratio predominately moves within the (green) upward-trend-channel and that since reaching the upper (green) trend-channel at approximately 90 in 2008, a correction has taken place. Currently having arrived at the lower (green-dashed) trend-channel at 47, suggests a rebound will start now. Only if this last support is being breached, another/confirming sell-signal for gold (against silver) is generated (i.e. silver is to be favored relative to gold). Hence, as the ratio has arrived at this (green-dashed) support, a buy-signal for gold (against silver) has just been issued (i.e. gold is expected to perform better than silver from now on).

12-6-10-makrocheck%204.png

Interestingly, the stock of J.P. Morgan is currently trading at the apex of the (red-green) triangle that has been forming since the mid 1990s. Despite two major breachings of the triangle`s lower (green) leg in 2001-2003 and 2008-2009, a breakout above the (red) leg occurred in 2009, whereafter various classical pullbacks to the triangle and its apex followed. Hence, the longer-term decision is soon to be made if a thrust to the up- or downside occurs: buy-signal (à la thrust to the upside) when rising above the (red-dashed) resistance currently at approximately 45 and sell-signal (à la thrust to the downside) when breaching the (green-dashed) support currently at approximately 34.

12-6-10-makrocheck%205.png

Indicators:

RSI: buy-signal since trading above the (red-green) triangle-apex. Sell-signal when breaching the apex at approximately 40 points, or when reaching the (grey) horizontal-resistance at 79 points (buy-signal when rising above it).

MACD: buy-signal when rising above the upper (red) resistance and sell-signal when breaching the lower (green) resistance.

PPO: buy-signal when rising above the upper (red) resistance amd sell-signal when breaching the lower (green) resistance.

The gold/silver ratio is analyzed constantly at the the Mackrocheck website. The analysis of stocks like JP Morgan can be observed at this section – however, as buy- and sell-signals are issued permanently, a "membership" is required (free of any costs and obligations):

Stephan Bogner is senior analyst with Makrocheck Investments & Research, a diversified investment & research group based in Zurich, Switzerland, specialized in the analysis of financial markets & equities for institutional & private investors.

Makrocheck (or any of its affiliates) is not liable or responsible for any loss (especially financially) that is made by readers using any of the information published by Makrocheck. Makrocheck does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported.

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Are Gold ETF Bar Inventories to Be Trusted?

Posted by commoditydaily on December 7, 2010

Are Gold ETF Bar Inventories to Be Trusted?

San Francisco Hard Assets Investment Conference 2010 Online Review

Published 11/19/2010

ST. LOUIS (MineFund.com) – Even before the World Gold Council’s benchmark exchange traded gold fund opened for sales it was heaped with several layers of conspiracy mongering. The worst charge is that exchange traded gold really has no bullion underpinning its paper.

Most of the conspiracies were offshoots of the now entirely demolished Gold Anti Trust Action Committee railings about a scheme to artificially suppress the price of gold. They were watered from time-to-time by competitors who correctly identified the threat SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) would pose to their businesses; not to put them out of work, but in siphoning away the lion’s share of the market.

Not all there

The phantom gold accusations have several forms which can be distilled as:

  • the bullion inventory is fake and/or untrustworthy;
  • investors don’t have unfettered ownership of the bullion underlying the shares;
  • it’s not really gold because you can’t take delivery of physical product; and
  • ETF investors have less rights than ordinary investors.

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We confined our interest to the first allegation – that exchange traded gold funds do not possess "audited gold". The other complaints are matters of individual investor preference and risk tolerance. So far we think the market has spoken unambiguously on those last three points.

"Unaudited gold" is a serious charge because it implies fraud. None of the accusers has gone so far as to allege actual fraud, but you’d need to be dimwitted to believe that that was not the underlying claim.

wpid-BarInventories1-2010-11-18-14-02.pngSome time has passed since the initial "gotcha" moments which revolved around duplicate bar numbers. All the duplication problems were satisfactorily resolved, but it was reasonably damaging to retail gold bug confidence because they had been softened up to expect the worst; it was literally a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Open audit

Since then the inventory of gold bars linked with an expanding number of ETF products has grown exponentially. Combined with the strict qualifications for London Good Delivery Bars, that provided us with an opportunity to subject the fake bullion claim to impartial statistical tests.

If the bullion inventory does not really exist but is artificially created and maintained there will inevitably be tell-tale statistical signals flagging tampering and manipulation. It’s not too far removed from the sort of number crunching that revealed Bernard Madoff to be a crook long before the Securities & Exchange Commission could find a reason to lay a finger on his books.

By comparing multiple inventories, the likelihood of finding untoward activity rises dramatically. Put another way, if it really is just paper gold, then the issuer would need to go to extraordinary lengths to manufacture a plausible proxy for the claimed underlying metal. In fact, the costs of maintaining such a scheme over time would vastly exceed storage, insurance and audit costs, never mind the risk of being found out.

The testing parameters are nearly perfect for such an exercise:

  • Quality is controlled by the London Bullion Market Association.
  • Accredited melters and assayers are widely dispersed.
  • They mostly acquire their product from regional sources.
  • The underlying product is tightly unitized:
  • London Good Delivery Bars must ideally contain 400 troy ounces of gold refined to a purity of 999.9 parts per 1,000.
  • The purity tolerance is strenuous:
  • assays of 999.5 and higher must test within ±0.05 parts per 1,000.
  • assays of less than 999.5 must test within ±0.15 parts per 1,000.
  • The minimum acceptable gold content is 350 troy ounces.
  • The maximum acceptable gold content is 430 troy ounces.
  • The minimum acceptable purity is 995 parts per 1,000.
  • Length, width and height are specified.
  • Each bar must be uniquely identifiable with four marks – serial number, refiner stamp, fineness, and year of manufacture.

wpid-BarInventories2-2010-11-18-14-02.pngWe evaluated 87,662 gold bars weighing 35.2 million troy ounces and worth around $46 billion (see Table 1 above and Table 4 after the link below. Click to see gold bar inventory detail). That represents all of the inventory underlying the ETF Securities funds, and roughly 60% of the SPDR Gold Shares inventory as of late October.

It is notable that the two organizations maintain different inventory reporting protocols even though they have common founders. That’s an important factor in looking for manipulation. A fraudster always seeks to mimic and cloak rather than differentiate because it avoids attracting attention.

Another telltale sign of untoward activity is a lack of transparency. Yet you can download the inventories at any time. In the case of GLD we did have to ask for a spreadsheet version rather than a PDF format, but it was quickly forthcoming. That’s not the hallmark of market bandits; more so since the World Gold Council has always been a little skittish in dealing with us for the better part of a decade.

Key variances:

  • SDPR Gold inventory weights are reported to thousandths; ETFS to hundredths.
  • ETFS reports a bar brand, GLD does not.
  • Refiner names have different nomenclatures in each organization.
  • The inventories have different geographic characteristics.

Comparisons

To facilitate direct comparisons we had to standardize the bar brands, adding the full refiner name along with the city and country that each bar was manufactured in. That provided an enormous amount of additional power to our task because the data could be sliced in many more ways in the search for anomalies.

Thanks,
Commodity Daily

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Posted By Commodity Daily to Commodity Daily – A World of Possibilities at 12/07/2010 02:51:00 PM

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GLOBAL PIVOTS – WEEKLY – 6TH DEC 2010 TO 10TH DEC 2010.

Posted by commoditydaily on December 7, 2010

07-12-10 11:50

** P W HIGH = Previous Week High, P W LOW = Previous Week Low, S  = Support  , R = Resistance

IF “COMMODITY” & “+ / -” BOTH COLUMN ARE IN “RED” = BEARISH & IF “GREEN” = BULLISH

COMEX

COMMODITY P W HIGH P W LOW P CLOSE S4 S3 S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2 R3 R4 + / –
GOLD Spot10 1416.55 1353.30 1414.07 1197.28 1260.53 1323.78 1357.51 1387.03 1420.76 1450.28 1513.53 1576.78 50.32
SILVER Spot 10 29.41 26.49 29.41 19.30 22.21 25.13 26.68 28.04 29.60 30.96 33.88 36.79 2.70
CRUDE Jan11 89.49 83.55 89.19 68.71 74.65 80.59 83.58 86.53 89.52 92.47 98.41 104.35 5.43
 

LME

ALUMINIUM 3 M 2387.50 2250.00 2319.00 1894.19 2031.69 2169.19 2225.88 2306.69 2363.38 2444.19 2581.69 2719.19 49.00
COPPER 3 M 8770.00 8155.00 8725.00 6615.25 7230.25 7845.25 8150.50 8460.25 8765.50 9075.25 9690.25 10305.25 486.00
NICKEL 3 M 24000.00 22348.00 23500.00 18156.00 19808.00 21460.00 22224.00 23112.00 23876.00 24764.00 26416.00 28068.00 950.00
TIN 3 M 25725.00 23700.00 25550.00 18719.25 20744.25 22769.25 23863.50 24794.25 25888.50 26819.25 28844.25 30869.25 1350.00
ZINC 3 M 2265.00 2039.75 2219.50 1483.31 1708.56 1933.81 2053.13 2159.06 2278.38 2384.31 2609.56 2834.81 114.50
LEAD 3 M 2390.00 2185.00 2340.00 1683.75 1888.75 2093.75 2207.50 2298.75 2412.50 2503.75 2708.75 2913.75 60.00
 

CURRENCIES

USDINR 46.1200 45.0587 45.1050 42.3370 43.3983 44.4596 44.9219 45.5209 45.9832 46.5822 47.6435 48.7048 -0.7500
USDSGD 1.3255 1.3009 1.3027 1.2383 1.2629 1.2875 1.2988 1.3121 1.3234 1.3367 1.3613 1.3859 -0.0167
EURUSD 1.3438 1.2969 1.3414 1.1867 1.2336 1.2805 1.3110 1.3274 1.3579 1.3743 1.4212 1.4681 0.0172
GBPUSD 1.5788 1.5485 1.5778 1.4754 1.5057 1.5360 1.5539 1.5663 1.5842 1.5966 1.6269 1.6572 0.0186
SGDINR 34.9429 34.4339 34.6189 33.1606 33.6696 34.1786 34.4322 34.6876 34.9412 35.1966 35.7056 36.2146 -0.1356
DOLLAR INDEX 81.4440 79.0630 79.3770 72.8828 75.2638 77.6448 78.6075 80.0258 80.9885 82.4068 84.7878 87.1688 -0.9800
USDJPY 84.4100 82.5300 82.5300 77.7400 79.6200 81.5000 82.3500 83.3800 84.2300 85.2600 87.1400 89.0200 -1.5700

ASIAN & AMERICAN MARKETS

BSE 20084.25 19167.19 19966.93 16861.00 17778.06 18695.12 19140.11 19612.18 20057.17 20529.24 21446.30 22363.36 830.32
NSE 6029.50 5754.70 5992.80 5067.34 5342.14 5616.94 5753.98 5891.74 6028.78 6166.54 6441.34 6716.14 240.85
STRAITS TIMES 3216.71 3126.87 3172.44 2898.94 2988.78 3078.62 3120.21 3168.46 3210.05 3258.30 3348.14 3437.98 14.36
HANG SENG 23611.04 22785.28 23320.52 20659.94 21485.70 22311.46 22663.41 23137.22 23489.17 23962.98 24788.74 25614.50 443.27
DOW 11388.87 10929.28 11382.09 9817.23 10276.82 10736.41 11003.13 11196.00 11462.72 11655.59 12115.18 12574.77 290.09
NASDAQ 2593.68 2488.61 2591.46 2233.79 2338.86 2443.93 2504.32 2549.00 2609.39 2654.07 2759.14 2864.21 56.90
NIKKEI 225 10254.00 9918.55 10178.32 9100.28 9435.73 9771.18 9959.27 10106.63 10294.72 10442.08 10777.53 11112.98 138.76
This research report is prepared for general information. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

 

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GLOBAL PIVOTS – MONTHLY – DECEMBER 2010.

Posted by commoditydaily on December 7, 2010

07-12-10 11:41

 

** P M HIGH = Previous Month High, P M LOW = Previous Month Low, S  = Support  , R = Resistance

 

IF “COMMODITY” & “+ / -” BOTH COLUMN ARE IN “RED” = BEARISH & IF “GREEN” = BULLISH

 

 

COMEX

 

COMMODITY

P M HIGH

P M LOW

P M CLOSE

S4

S3

S2

S1

PIOVT

R1

R2

R3

R4

+ / –

 

GOLD SPOT 10

1424.60

1325.82

1386.02

1084.32

1183.10

1281.88

1336.72

1380.66

1435.50

1479.44

1578.22

1677.00

26.62

 

SILVER SPOT 10

29.36

23.93

28.08

11.06

16.49

21.93

25.36

27.36

30.80

32.80

38.23

43.67

3.33

 

CRUDE JAN 11

89.10

80.28

84.11

57.83

66.65

75.47

79.48

84.29

88.30

93.11

101.93

110.75

1.96

 

 

 

LME

 

ALUMINIUM 3 M

2500.00

2185.00

2275.00

1366.25

1681.25

1996.25

2122.50

2311.25

2437.50

2626.25

2941.25

3256.25

-69.00

 

COPPER 3 M

8966.00

7920.00

8360.00

5261.81

6307.81

7353.81

7833.63

8399.81

8879.63

9445.81

10491.81

11537.81

160.00

 

NICKEL 3 M

24849.00

20450.00

23050.00

9602.75

14001.75

18400.75

20750.50

22799.75

25149.50

27198.75

31597.75

35996.75

60.00

 

TIN 3 M

27500.00

23602.00

24495.00

13329.00

17227.00

21125.00

22546.00

25023.00

26444.00

28921.00

32819.00

36717.00

-1105.00

 

ZINC 3 M

2599.00

2019.50

2112.00

472.88

1052.38

1631.88

1823.75

2211.38

2403.25

2790.88

3370.38

3949.88

-311.00

 

LEAD 3 M

2650.00

2150.00

2230.00

815.25

1315.25

1815.25

1980.50

2315.25

2480.50

2815.25

3315.25

3815.25

-219.00

 

 

 

CURRENCIES

 

USDINR

46.1200

44.1900

45.8850

39.7275

41.6575

43.5875

44.9150

45.5175

46.8450

47.4475

49.3775

51.3075

1.4575

 

USDSGD

1.3255

1.2817

1.3202

1.1805

1.2243

1.2681

1.2984

1.3119

1.3422

1.3557

1.3995

1.4433

0.0266

 

EURUSD

1.4282

1.2969

1.2983

0.9365

1.0678

1.1991

1.2327

1.3304

1.3640

1.4617

1.5930

1.7243

-0.0964

 

GBPUSD

1.6299

1.5485

1.5562

1.3285

1.4099

1.4913

1.5155

1.5727

1.5969

1.6541

1.7355

1.8169

-0.0476

 

SGDINR

35.0694

34.1542

34.7548

31.9377

32.8529

33.7681

34.2972

34.6833

35.2124

35.5985

36.5137

37.4289

0.4128

 

DOLLAR INDEX

81.4440

75.6310

81.1950

62.4615

68.2745

74.0875

78.3570

79.9005

84.1700

85.7135

91.5265

97.3395

3.9290

 

USDJPY

84.4100

80.2200

83.6900

70.4325

74.6225

78.8125

81.5950

83.0025

85.7850

87.1925

91.3825

95.5725

3.2900

 

 

ASIAN & AMERICAN MARKETS

 

BSE

21108.64

18954.82

19521.25

13317.22

15471.04

17624.86

18448.71

19778.68

20602.53

21932.50

24086.32

26240.14

-511.09

 

NSE

6338.50

5690.35

5862.70

3996.19

4644.34

5292.49

5542.78

5940.64

6190.93

6588.79

7236.94

7885.09

-155.00

 

STRAITS TIMES

3313.61

3118.62

3144.70

2595.45

2790.44

2985.43

3047.23

3180.42

3242.22

3375.41

3570.40

3765.39

2.08

 

HANG SENG

24988.57

22782.98

23007.99

16821.57

19027.16

21232.75

21888.10

23438.34

24093.69

25643.93

27849.52

30055.11

-88.33

 

DOW

11451.53

10929.28

11006.02

9531.77

10054.02

10576.27

10745.50

11098.52

11267.75

11620.77

12143.02

12665.27

-112.47

 

NASDAQ

2592.94

2459.79

2498.23

2122.09

2255.24

2388.39

2450.14

2521.54

2583.29

2654.69

2787.84

2920.99

-9.18

 

NIKKEI 225

10157.97

9123.62

9937.04

6686.56

7720.91

8755.26

9421.25

9789.61

10455.60

10823.96

11858.31

12892.66

734.59

 

 

This research report is prepared for general information. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

 

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